Ice cream sales slump in 2004, due to a cool and rainy summer. Poultry volume unknown except for Germany and Sweden. Bake-off bread products gain substantial market share in Scandinavia.

Meet the new challenger for frozen food consumption leadership in Europe: it's Ireland, at 46.6 kilograms per capita, just a little short of Sweden at 46.9 kg but ahead of the United Kingdom and Denmark at 45.5 and 45.2. Irish consumption grew by 14% last year to 186,400 tons, according to Food for Thought (FFT), a Geneva, Switzerland-based food and drink research group.

Pizza was the star performer among product categories last year in 22 countries tracked by FFT, with a 9.3% increase to 638,000 tons. This followed a slight decline in 2003. Yet ready meals, which held steady in 2003, showed a 2.7% decline in 2004, to 1,336,400 tons.

In euro value terms, however, fish and seafood and convenience meats far outweighed other frozen food categories. These are high-ticket items compared to vegetables or french fries; fish and seafood products average 7.40 euros a kilogram, and convenience meats 6.81, versus 1.41 euros for potato products.

Ice cream sales, not included by Quick Frozen Foods International in tonnage totals, as volume is given in liters, was down 2.7% to 3.362 billion liters and 4.4% to 14.824 euros. In Germany, the largest single ice cream market, volume was off 9.1% to 610.4 million liters and 7.6% to 2.788 billion euros. But there was an increase in Spain, 3.6% to 321.8 million liters and 6.7% to 1.527 billion euros.

Overall consumption was up two percent to 11,950,300 tons, exclusive of poultry. Among the gainers were frozen potato products at 5.2% to 2,999,000 tons and frozen fruits at 6.5% to 171,800. Yet bakery products were off 0.3% to 1,201,100. Vegetables scored a slight 0.2% gain, to 2,617,700.

As in prior years, FFT's figures don't necessarily agree with those from other sources, but the number of other sources is dwindling. Germany, where the Deutsches Tiefkühlinsitut (dti) was the only national industry group to issue a comprehensive report, showed a total consumption of 2,715,385 tons without poultry (compared to 2,566,000 for FFT) and 3,022,365 with poultry. Sweden reported a growth index rather than actual tonnage, but put last year's per capita consumption at 46.7 kg.

Chances are that Germany has overtaken the United Kingdom as the largest frozen food market in Europe if poultry is counted. Number three is still France, at 1,553,900 tons excluding poultry. But number four is Spain at 1,204,900 tons, and since Spain has a considerably smaller population it has a higher per capita consumption - 36 kg versus 25.8.

In terms of value, Food for Thought put the market at 51.109 billion euros without ice cream and 65.917 billion euros with it. But besides ice cream, the most valuable segments were fish and seafood at 11.630 billion euros, up 4.8%; and convenience meats at 9.163 billion, up 2.9%. Potato products may remain the largest in tonnage terms, at nearly three million; but in euros they're relatively small potatoes at 4.312 billion even though they scored an impressive 6.6% gain.

With only Germany releasing a full report of its own, Food for Thought has put out a Western European Database as well as tables of raw figures for 15 older EU members plus Norway and Switzerland. Among its findings are that Unilever is the market leader in Western Europe at 16.6%, followed by Nestlé at eight percent. That might change if Unilever goes through with its oft-rumored plan to divest its Birds Eye frozen food operation in the UK.

The UK, France and Germany combined account for 53% of the Western Europe market, including ice cream, in euro value terms, FFT reported, compared to 52% of the population. The top five, with Spain and Italy added, account for 74% of the frozen food sales and 77% of the population. Euro growth since 1999 has been highest in Germany, with an average of 4.95%, followed by Italy at 3.4% and Spain at 2.98%. But factoring in inflation, FFT says, it's a whole different story: leaders in "real" growth are Norway at 5.2%, Sweden at 4.5% and Austria at 3.7%.

There's a similar pattern in category segments, FFT found. In current euros, the leaders since 1999 have been fish at 3.28%, ready meals at 2.88% and vegetables at 2.21%. But in constant euros, the relatively small category of fruit has led at 10.6% a year, followed by fish at 2.9% and potato products at 2.3%. Fish, appearing on both lists as well as leading in total euros, bears closer examination.

In Germany, the dti showed a tonnage increase of 9.1% to 262,601, while revising its sub-categories from 2003. The largest increases were in raw fillets and fish dishes, but breaded fish also did well. What didn't do well was fish sticks. Molluscs and shellfish, once a separate category, have been lumped in with "other fish and seafood," but probably account for most of that sub-category's 9.1% growth. FFT puts euro value for German fish and seafood at 2.832 billion, up 5.7%.

For other major countries, frozen fish and seafood tonnage and value work out as follows:

• Spain: 356,000 tons (largest in EU), up 4.1%; 2.227 billion euros, up 7.2%.
• UK: 253,700 tons, up 1.0%; 2.257 billion euros, down 0.1%.
• France, 177,600 tons, down 0.1%; 1.553 billion euros, up 0.1%.

Much of the growth is in smaller countries. In Sweden, frozen fish sales were up four percent to 371 million euros and 4.6% to 57,700 tons. Greece recorded a 15.7% increase in value to 192.7 million euros and a 12.4% gain in tonnage to 51,700. But in some countries, it was all a matter of price. Ireland showed a 21.2% increase in euro volume to 134.3 million, but tonnage was up only 2.7% to 30,900. Polish frozen fish sales were up 13.8% to 251.4 million euros, but tonnage fell.

Italy reported retail frozen fish and seafood tonnage for 2004 at 81,151, up three percent from 2003. But the gain was all in shellfish and molluscs, up 32.1% to 28,569. Raw fish was down sharply at 29,189, and breaded products barely gained at all.

Overall retail consumption in Italy, according to the Istituto Italiano Alementi Surgelati, was 486,851 tons, up 2.8%. But the organization put the increase at 3.1%, and the percentage changes it gives for categories and sub-categories don't jibe with figures in its 2003 report. For what they're worth, category figures include: Vegetables, 203,882 (single 119,737, mixed 70,960, prepared 4,845, other 8,340); Potato products, 60,213 (fries 54,455, other 5,758); Fish and seafood, 81,151 (raw 29,189, breaded 23,392, molluscs and shellfish 28,569); Meat, 3,451 (hamburger 2,413, other 1,038); Poultry, 6,568; Bakery products, 7,665; Pizza and snacks, 60,461 (pizza 31,444, mini-pizza 2,869, savory snacks 26,148); Prepared foods, 57,204 (primary, 32,900; secondary, 9,813; side dishes, 14,490); Desserts, 3,178; Fruits, 709; Other, 2,389.

Although it doesn't give any breakdown by country, Food for Thought estimates the overall retail frozen food and ice cream market for Western Europe at 43.2 billion euros and the foodservice market at 20.3 billion. In Sweden, the Dijupfrysnings Byran breaks out a third segment, bake-off - bread and related items to be baked in stores, foodservice establishments or at home - which reached 45,360 tons last year compared to 213,973 for retail and a little over 160,000 for foodservice.

Bake-off products such as bread and pastries are distributed in frozen form to the industrial foodservice trade and the retail/in-store sector as well as to HoReCa (hotels, restaurants and catering), according to BakeMark, a Swedish pioneer in the category that also markets its products in Norway, Denmark and Finland. Another Swedish company, Vaasan & Vaasan Group, claims to have "a new highly popular home bake-off concept." Home bake-off is said to be extremely successful in Finland, where the "retail bake-off category is the second largest product group within the frozen food department after ice cream."

Bake-off crosses the boundary between retail and catering. In Sweden, it dwarfs retail tonnage for frozen bakery products that stay frozen (7,635 tons), and was second last year only to ready meals (55,869 tons). Other retail figures in Sweden included 36,654 tons for poultry, 31,791 for vegetables, 31,754 for potato products, 20,306 for fish, 14,204 for meat, 10,643 for shellfish, 3,177 for fruits and berries (fastest gainer, at 20.8%) and 1,940 for vegetarian products. Foodservice consumption is 30.9% meat, 22.1% potato products, 11.6% poultry, 10% ready dishes, 8.8% vegetables and 8.2% fish.

Poland has the largest tonnage in Eastern Europe at 270,700, but the increase was only 0.1% and the per capita rate was a mere 7 kg. Tonnage in the Czech Republic was off 2.3% to 58,400 and 5.7 kg per capita. Hungary had the largest per capita consumption at 12.7 kg, close to that of Portugal and Italy in Western Europe.

EUROPEAN TOTAL FROZEN FOOD MARKETS MEASURED BY VOLUME IN 2004*

(Ton '000s/million liters)

* All data refer to total final human consumption, including retail, catering/foodservice and artisanal/craft, thus excluding industrial consumption and on-farm consumption.

+Totals exclude ice cream; Source: Food for Thought (FFT) S.A., Geneva, Switzerland (www.fft.com).