Shrimp Products Hottest Single Trend
In Mature American Frozen Food Market

Entrees and bowl meals, especially low-fat lines, also on a growth curve.

Shrimp is in, juice is out. Among other things.

The United States remains the world's largest frozen food market by far, but it is thereby also the most mature. With a per capita consumption of about 62 kilograms, opportunities for major growth are limited.

On the retail side, indeed, the market seems to have slowed to a crawl. On the foodservice and institutional side, the picture looks better - as frozen foods certainly shared in the overall 3.9% growth estimated by the National Restaurant Association.

Retail frozen food volume reached 10.9 billion pounds, based on ACNielsen figures. Estimates have been made for Wal-Mart, which doesn't reveal category sales numbers. Dollar sales were about $23.35 billion, again based on ACNielsen figures plus estimates for Wal-Mart. In the case of shrimp, QFFI is using a larger fudge factor.

Retail sales of frozen shrimp in the United States reached about $814 million last year, up 25%. But the real news was that unbreaded shrimp far outsold the traditional breaded variety, at $721 million, up nearly 30%. Unbreaded shrimp poundage rose 42% to about $969 million. In some supermarkets these days, frozen shrimp seems to get as much space as frozen chicken.

In retail seafood sections, two hot trends have come together with shrimp bowl meals. Mrs. Paul's and Gorton's have both gotten into those, and compete head-on in Alfredo, Fried Rice and Garlic Butter varieties. Mrs. Paul's also has Sweet & Sour and Thai Style Peanut Shrimp, while Gorton's offers Teriyaki and Primavera. Both lines typically retail for $4.99, but are frequently promoted at lower prices.

Shrimp pizza from Contessa can also be found in the seafood section. Cocktail shrimp in party rings are ubiquitous at supermarkets. Most are sold thawed, but some chains, like Price Chopper, offer them boxed and frozen. Cocktail shrimp usually appear in private label, as do large polybags of raw shrimp in various counts, sometimes identified by type (black tiger) as well as origin.

Even more frozen shrimp, meanwhile, moves through foodservice outlets. Popcorn shrimp is one of the standard items at Popeyes, which began as a Cajun fried chicken chain, and butterfly shrimp are big business at seafood outlets like Long John Silver's.

But in frozen juices, it's a different story. Retail sales of frozen concentrates are going down, even though production went up last year, with the difference going into more chilled juice and even canned juices and blends. Other traditional commodities like vegetables are holding their own, or even making gains; but prepared foods - from bakery products to dinners and entrees - now account for more than half the overall volume.

Huge as it is, that prepared foods market seems to be serving a fickle public. People are spending less on dessert cakes and sweet rolls, but a lot more on frozen rolls and muffins. Entrees generally are in a holding pattern, but Oriental entrees are showing solid growth. Meal starters are faltering, but corn dogs are catching on.

Getting the Fat Out

Although they aren't categorized separately by ACNielsen or other market analysts, low-fat products have to be the cutting edge in dinners and entrees. Weight Watchers, once the only game in town, now has plenty of competition from Con-Agra's Healthy Choice and Stouffer's Lean Cuisine, which keep rolling out new products and even new concepts.

Healthy Choice has come out with Mixed Grills (Chicken with Honey Mustard Dipping Sauce and the like) and Flavor Adventures (Grilled Whiskey Steak, etc.). Stouffers has put its money on Lean Cuisine single-serve Crispy Crust pizza, Asian recipes like Orange Beef and bowl meals like Creamy Chicken & Rice. SKU's keep multiplying, and so do the promotions.

Bowl meals were fairly lean to begin with when Uncle Ben's led the breakout for an item that had been only marginally successful in lesser brands. But now there are bowl meals all over the place, some in the entrée section, others in the seafood section, still others in the breakfast section. Besides Lean Cuisine, Stouffer's has a line called Slowfire Classics, while Uncle Ben's has launched Breakfast Bowls like Buttermilk Pancakes & Sausage and Bacon, Egg & Potatoes.

For more indulgent consumers, pizza and ethnic snacks are really big (See stories, pages 64-71 and 72-79, respectively). A number of retailers have come out with private label ethnic entrees, sometimes going beyond the national brands. Boston Market calorie-laden entrees have done well, as have family entrees from Stouffer's and others, including store brands. In the breakfast area, toaster strudel is another hot item.

On the foodservice side, chicken breast strips seem to be one of the hottest items. Kentucky Fried Chicken, Wendy's and Popeyes are among the fast food chains carrying them, Unlike chicken nuggets and chicken tenders, they are made from pure breast meat rather than ground-up meat of uncertain origin, and they have helped push chicken consumption further ahead of that for beef - 75.6 pounds per capita versus 66.2.

American producers may have to find some way of expanding the home market, as export opportunities are faltering. Overall frozen exports, exclusive of juice concentrates, amounted to a bit over 4.83 million tons, valued at $5.89 billion last year, compared to 5.47 million tons and $6.22 billion in 2001.

Reduced exports of chicken to Russia (due to import restrictions there) and french fries to Japan (due to the state of its economy) were contributing factors. Meanwhile, frozen imports increased from 2.46 million to 3.19 million tons, and from $9.43 billion to $9.7 billion.